Carlisle the favourites, but Boreham Wood look like the value bet
The National League returns this weekend, and the season that just finished delivered quite a record for anyone betting on the competition’s title markets: a profit of 13.05 points, lifting the running total to almost 75 points. A good part of that came from an 8-point NAP on York, who sealed the title with a goal in the 103rd minute of the final round. Pure drama, and that is no exaggeration.
Carlisle head the betting, but two heavyweight rivals are gone
With York and Rochdale promoted through the playoffs, the league loses two strong contenders, while Barrow and Harrogate, relegated the previous season, do not look likely to replace that level straight away. Carlisle, managed by Mark Hughes, are the favourites at 5/2 to lift the trophy, after heavy investment last summer that was not enough to keep pace with the top two down the stretch.
The attack led by Regan Linney, who has scored 42 goals in the competition over the last two seasons, has gained serious reinforcements: Harvey Bunker, formerly of Forest Green, and midfielder Miguel Azeez, who arrived with a flashy reputation after a spell at Morecambe. Georgie Kelly, David Ajiboye, Luke Armstrong and Junior Luamba complete an eye-catching attacking squad.
Boreham Wood emerge as the more attractive price
Knocked out by Carlisle themselves in the playoff semi-final, Boreham Wood lost on penalties at Wembley in their bid to reach the Football League. Even so, Luke Garrard’s side stand out as an interesting alternative for anyone hunting value with the bookmakers, priced at 7/1 for the title.
Garrard has been one of the most capable managers at this level, and proved his versatility by turning a squad once defined by physical robustness into a quick, technical team, led by Abdul Abdulmalik, one of the league’s best players last season. Matt Rush, top scorer with 26 goals, forms an attacking trio with Zak Brunt and Lewis Richardson, backed by a solid defence of Regan Booty, Marley Marshall-Miranda, Femi Ilesanmi and Chris Bush. The signings have been low-key: loan goalkeeper Luca Gunter from Tottenham, full-back Oliver Bainbridge from Sunderland, and the experienced Tylor Golden.
Worthing and Morecambe also on the betting radar
National League South champions Worthing arrive with a realistic chance of finishing in the top seven in their first season in the fifth tier, priced at 15/2. Manager Adam Hinshelwood, who returned to the club after a surprise departure from York, keeps a strong core of Harry Ransom, Sam Packham and Teddy Jenks, plus top scorer Brad Dolaghan and the arrivals of Ricky Aguiar, Ashley Nathaniel-George and Noor Husin.
In the National League North, Morecambe are the natural favourites under Adam Lakeland, who left Halifax after a surprising eighth-place finish in the division above. The reinforced squad includes centre-back Will Smith, defenders Cameron Coxe and Lewis Baines, forward Teddy Collis – top scorer with 31 goals for Brightlingsea Regent – and names such as Isaac Buckley-Ricketts and Matty Daly. Hednesford Town, Northern Premier League playoff winners, also merited a small bet at 12/1, with a squad strengthened by experienced players like Aaron Hayden and Dylan Mottley-Henry.
