Tunisia arrive in tatters to face Japan at the 2026 World Cup
A 5-1 defeat, a sacked coach and morale on the floor. That is the scenario Tunisia carry into the clash against Japan, scheduled for this Sunday, 21 June, at 5am (Brasília time), at the Estadio BBVA, in Guadalupe, Mexico. A game that could, in practice, seal the Tunisians’ fate in the competition.
Tunisia in crisis: new staff, same problems
Their tournament debut was catastrophic. The Tunisia national team was taken apart by Sweden right at the start of the group stage, and the heavy scoreline cost coach Sabri Lamouchi his job, dismissed soon after. Hervé Renard takes over with maximum urgency and zero preparation time.
The problem is not just tactical. It is about confidence, stability, identity. In their last five internationals, the Tunisians managed only one win and one draw. The defence, wide open against the Swedes, remains the main open wound. To try to bring some organisation to the chaos, Renard is expected to rely on defender Omar Rekik, who scored the team’s only goal so far, and on midfielder Hannibal Mejbri as central pieces in building the play.
Japan in a different moment: high confidence, unbeaten run
The contrast could not be sharper. The Japanese take the field buoyed by a run of eight games without defeat, and have already shown plenty of character at this World Cup. On their debut, they went two goals down to the Netherlands and snatched a 2-2 draw – a result that puts the Samurai Blue in a comfortable position in the group.
Daichi Kamada and Keito Nakamura found the net against the Dutch and should be the main threats to the opposing defence. In total, Japan have lost only two of their last 21 games played. An impressive solidity for a tournament of the highest pressure. The absence of Endo and Kubo weighs, but the squad has depth to compensate.
History favours Japan; the forecast points to a Japanese win
In the five head-to-heads between the teams, Japan have won four. There has never been a draw in this duel. The most recent result, in 2023, also ended with a Japanese triumph. The historical trend, combined with the radically different momentum of the two teams, makes the Asians overwhelming favourites.
With Tunisia disorganised and Japan cruising, an open game is the most likely scenario. The combination of a win for either side with over 2.5 goals is priced at 6.75, while Japan ahead at half-time pays 1.91. The most direct prediction points to the Japanese controlling the game from early on and sealing three decisive points for their ambitions in the tournament.
