England face DR Congo in the 2026 World Cup round of 16 in an unprecedented clash
For the first time in history, the national teams of England and the Democratic Republic of the Congo meet in an official men’s football match. The clash takes place this Wednesday, 1 July, in the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup. The English arrive as clear favourites, but the Leopards have already proven in this tournament that they are not an opponent to be underestimated.
How each team got here
England finished the group stage on top, without losing a single match. The turning point came mainly in the second halves: that is exactly how the English took apart Panama 2-0 in the final group-stage round. Gareth Southgate’s team has generated a consistent volume of play, with 17 or more shots in each of the last three games at the tournament.
DR Congo wrote their own history by securing an unprecedented qualification for the round of 16. The feat came with a 3-1 comeback over Uzbekistan, which placed the Africans among the best third-placed teams. Never before had the Congolese national team advanced to the knockout phase of a World Cup. Yoane Wissa was the engine of the attack, scoring in two of the three group-stage matches.
What the numbers say about the clash
The probability of an English win is estimated at 77%, against just 8% for Congo and 15% for a draw. The scoreline projected by the statistical models is 2-0 for the Europeans. It is England’s third knockout clash against an African side at World Cups: previously came wins over Cameroon in the 1990 quarter-finals and over Senegal in the 2022 round of 16.
Harry Kane remains the reference point of the English attack. The striker has attempted three or more shots in each of the last three games for his country at the World Cup, scoring in two of them. On the other side, the attacking pair of Cédric Bakambu and Wissa represent the main threat to the defence of Marc Guéhi and Ezri Konsa, who are expected to form the starting centre-back pairing after Jarell Quansah’s injury against Panama.
Probable line-ups
England are expected to take the field in a 4-2-3-1, with Jordan Pickford in goal; Déjan Spence and O’Reilly at full-back; Guéhi and Konsa in central defence; Declan Rice and Anderson at the base of midfield; Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford behind Kane. Reece James is out injured.
DR Congo are likely to keep the 3-5-2 that worked in the group stage, with Mpasi between the posts; Kapuadi, Chancel Mbemba and Axel Tuanzebe in the back three; and Wissa and Bakambu as the front pair. Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who represents the Congolese national team by personal choice, is expected to play as right wing-back in the coach’s system.
