Japan face Tunisia in the 1,000th game in World Cup history
On Sunday, 21 June 2026, Japan and Tunisia meet at the Estadio Monterrey, in Mexico, in a Group F clash that carries historic weight: it will be game number 1,000 in the history of the tournament. Two teams in completely opposite situations take the field – one on a high, the other in tatters.
Japan show two faces, but snatch a heroic draw
Against the Netherlands, the Japanese played a flat first half. Just 31% possession, three shots, two goals conceded. They looked doomed. But the Japan that came out for the second half was a different team: 52% possession, seven shots and two goals scored. The 2-2 draw was built on pressure, and Daichi Kamada’s goal in the 89th minute – the latest in the history of the Japanese national team at World Cups – became a symbol of the behavioural turnaround within the match.
The statistics reinforce the pattern: nine of Japan’s last ten goals at World Cups have come in the second half. Against a fragile Tunisia, that late-pressure instinct could be even more lethal.
Tunisia in collapse: historic defeat and a change of coach
The Tunisian debut was an unprecedented disaster. The North African team were beaten 5-1 by Sweden – the heaviest defeat suffered by the country in its entire World Cup history. For comparison, in 2022 the team had ended the group stage without conceding more than one goal per game.
The crisis was so acute that Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed right after the match, becoming the first coach sacked in the middle of a World Cup after just one game. The replacement is Hervé Renard, an experienced coach with spells at African national teams and a flair for dressing-room management in high-pressure situations. Whether he can change anything in such a short time is an unknown.
What to expect from the clash
The odds point to Japan as an emphatic favourite. The Japanese win is priced at -190, while a Tunisian triumph pays +550. The draw appears at +300. In the betting analysis, the bet on over 1.5 goals scored by the Asians gains strength – a team in defensive free fall like Tunisia will hardly sustain the pressure of the Japanese second half.
Among the candidates to score, Ayase Ueda leads the odds of Japanese bettors, followed by Koki Ogawa and Kento Shiogai. On the Tunisian side, Elias Saad appears as the main attacking threat, although at much less appealing odds.
The ball rolls at midnight, Brasília time, live on FS1.
