McGregor faces Holloway at UFC 329 after five years away from the octagon
The wait is over. On the night of this Saturday, 11 July 2026, Conor McGregor steps into the octagon at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas to face Max Holloway on the main card of UFC 329. It has been five years since the leg fracture suffered in the fight against Dustin Poirier – and, for many people, this return seemed increasingly unlikely.
What is at stake for each fighter
For the Irishman, it is about much more than a simple bout in the Welterweight division. McGregor went through a turbulent period inside and outside the rings, and returning against an opponent of Holloway’s calibre would, in itself, be a statement that he still belongs to the elite. At 37, carrying the weight of a serious injury and a run of negative results, “The Notorious” needs an explosive start to the fight – the gas will not last five rounds, that is almost consensus.
Holloway arrives in a very different situation. Former Featherweight champion and one of the most prolific finishers by knockout, he had lost ground after a defeat to Charles Oliveira. But Justin Gaethje’s title win reopened the queue – and a convincing win over McGregor could put him back at the top of the conversation.
The odds and the favouritism
The bookmakers do not spare McGregor. Holloway appears as a heavy favourite, with odds of -235 for the win. The Hawaiian’s knockout is already priced almost at even, at -115. The Irishman, on the other hand, pays +182 for any victory and +270 should he end the bout early – the most realistic path for him, in analysts’ assessment.
Ten years ago, McGregor dominated Holloway with a mixture of pressure, side kicks and impeccable timing. It was a different fight, against a young opponent who had not yet established himself. Today, Holloway has evolved in everything: volume, defence, grappling. The 2015 fight serves only as a historical curiosity.
How each one can win
McGregor’s path inevitably runs through the early rounds. He needs to impose pressure, seek the cage and find the Hawaiian’s chin before physical fatigue starts to take its toll. It is a lot to ask of a rusty 37-year-old fighter to come out hot from the start – but that is exactly what the situation demands.
Holloway, in turn, has everything to grow as the rounds go by. His striking volume is stifling, and if he survives a possibly tougher start, the tendency is for “Blessed” to take over the bout with the jab, variations and persistence. It would be no surprise if the Hawaiian tried at least one takedown to wear down the opponent’s muscles – a strategy similar to the one Poirier used successfully.
The projection points to Holloway by knockout. McGregor will need something close to a miracle to change that script.
