Dembélé defends his title, Messi breaks records: the race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has never been so open
With Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo no longer monopolizing football’s most coveted prize, the race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has reached its decisive period without a clear favourite. The North American World Cup has transformed the contest: whoever shines at the tournament could jump several rungs in the voting all at once.
Dembélé’s reign and the closed European season
Ousmane Dembélé, who overcame years of injuries and inconsistency to win the Ballon d’Or in 2025, is once again among the candidates. The Frenchman was a central piece in the Paris Saint-Germain side that won the Champions League for the first time in its history. The ceremony is scheduled for 26 October in London, but the final verdict will probably only make sense after the World Cup.
In the European season, PSG dominated. Beyond the Champions League, the Parisian club repeated its Ligue 1 title, and two names from the squad appear strongly among the contenders: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, named the best of the Champions League knockout phase after scoring or assisting in seven consecutive games, and Vitinha, chosen best player of the final and considered by many the best midfielder in the world today. Achraf Hakimi, the planet’s best right-back, also carries the African title and the Champions League on his résumé.
Messi resurges, Haaland piles up goals, and the World Cup rewrites everything
It is at the North American tournament that the contest takes on another dimension. Lionel Messi arrived at the World Cup in absurd form: six goals in Argentina’s first three games, breaking the historic record for goals in a single World Cup edition. The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner, who also claimed his second MLS MVP after leading Inter Miami to the title, has a favourable path through the knockout rounds – which could yield even more arguments for an unlikely but real candidacy.
Erling Haaland, for his part, arrived at the World Cup after a season of 55 goals for Manchester City, adding the FA Cup and Carabao Cup. For Norway – back at the tournament for the first time since 1998 – he scored four times in the group stage. Kylian Mbappé regained his level at Real Madrid with 52 goals on the season, and Lamine Yamal, 18, is the betting favourite, although an injury limited his rhythm ahead of the tournament.
The Africa Cup as an extra factor
Another unusual element in this cycle was the Africa Cup of Nations, which distributed extra points in the race. Ismael Saibari of PSV won the tournament with Morocco and was also named the best in the Eredivisie, attracting the interest of Bayern Munich. Hakimi also benefited from the continental title, even with the final having been annulled by CAF. For the Africans, the window to climb the Ballon d’Or ranking was wider than ever.
The season is not over yet. Whoever lifts the trophy at the World Cup – be it Messi with Argentina, Haaland with Norway or any other name on this list – arrives at the October ceremony with an argument that is hard to refute.
